Friday, May 8, 2009

They Say It’s a Recession Not a Depression

Depression Definition Per Wiki: A depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression.

Well I suppose for Warren Buffet it is a recession that's "almost over".

But in the construction industry it’s a depression. I pray that my industry isn’t the leading edge of what’s coming down the pike for the rest of the economy, but if it is hold on to your hats ladies, it’s going to get very, very bumpy.

Construction Industry Stats:

Unemployment Check: Nationwide 23%, in my State 30%

Shrinking Output Check: New Housing Starts Down 50% over March 2008 (per US Dept of Housing & Urban Development press release dated April 16, 2009)

Restriction of Credit Check: No National Banks Writing New Construction Loans – Not One

Devaluations Check: Everyone is familiar with the foreclosure rates and the housing market value free fall & it isn’t pretty.

My industry is in a depression and it shows no signs of letting up any time soon despite all the rhetoric.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner:: This afternoon, the Federal Reserve and the national banking agencies released the results of the stress tests... These tests will help ensure that banks have a sufficient capital cushion to continue lending in a more adverse economic scenario.

Who are they fooling the banks aren’t lending at all let alone continuing to lend if it gets worse. It’s all smoke and mirrors.

So What’s the Upside?

For our business, absolutely nothing that’s visible to the human eye.

Personal upside…

I’ve always known in my heart of hearts that my husband and I aren’t in business for the money. Being an entrepreneur isn’t at all what folks tend to perceive and occasionally people react with jealousy or malice to financial success.

I’ve always known that my ego wasn’t tied up with the money, and facing professional and possibly personal bankruptcy confirms this. I don’t feel the least bit differently about myself facing the possibility of going broke. It hurts to let people go one by one, it’s a heavy burden on our hearts, but being broke doesn’t hurt at all, it just requires adjustments which we are happy to make and we both continue to be grateful for what we have.

I wasn’t looking to have my detachment from money confirmed, but there is peace in the knowledge.

Thanks you Lord for all the blessings in my life. I will continue to keep my eyes on you, continue to rely on my daily Manna, continue secure in the knowledge that I will not perish but live, steadfast in the assurance that you are resting peacefully in the back of the boat as these waves crash over the bow. Jesus, I Trust In You. Amen.

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